Trevor Bauer
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LA fans, your new favorite player just signed with the Dodgers: Trevor Bauer.  He brings one of the largest, if not the largest, personalities to the squad.  Full of hatred for the enemy of Dodgertown and honest baseball fans alike, the Astros.

Here’s why he will shine in Dodger blue.

Elite Spin Rate

The popularity of spin rate has exploded over the past few years.  It has become the primary statistic for measuring a pitcher’s fastball effectiveness.  A faster spin rate, measured in RPM, equals higher velocity and a decrease in gravitational droppage.

Justin Verlander is the poster boy for elite spin rate.  In 2019, he averaged 2577 RPM on fastballs.  Compare that to Bauer’s 2817 average RPM in 2020, and Verlander’s number is blown out of the water.  

Gerrit Cole is also known for his spin rate, but his 2505 average RPMs are also much lower than Bauer’s.

The heightened RPM from Bauer makes his fastball the best in MLB; you can count on that remaining the same.

ERA+

This is a statistic that measures a pitcher’s performance based on league-average and adjusts for park factors.   For example, Clayton Kershaw in 2014, a season which many consider to be the best pitching performance ever, posted a 197 ERA+.

In 2020, Trevor Bauer led the league with a 1.76 ERA, good for the 106th best ERA in MLB history.

His ERA+, however, is exemplary.  Adjusting for park factors and league averages, his ERA+ sits at 276.  That number is the 5th best ERA+ of all time.  Now, in the shortened 2020 season, we can see how this could be unsustainable over a 162 game schedule.  Don’t expect his ERA+ to remain at 276 in 2021.  A reasonable estimate could be 120-150 over a full season.

Ballpark

This may not immediately pop into mind as a major factor in a pitcher’s performance.  However, this could be the leading factor in Trevor Bauer possibly having a better season in LA than Cincinnati.

According to Baseball-Reference’s Park Factors Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park is one of the most prolific hitter’s parks in MLB.  Posting a 119 park factor where over 100 favors hitters, and under 100 favors pitchers.

Dodger Stadium, however, posts a much more reasonable 97, making it a slight pitcher’s park.  This factor could do nothing but help his season.

Trevor Bauer has been, and always will be, a volatile choice in your MLB fantasy draft.  His production has fluctuated wildly from year to year, and predicting him to do anything is a difficult task.

Passing up the Cy Young Award winner may be hard to do, I recommend drafting him as your #2 pitcher.  If you are in a league with more than 10 participants, you should grab him as soon as possible, for he won’t stay on the shelf for long.

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John Kingston is the MLB expert for StatementGames. Find his other articles here.  @John_Kngston

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