An NFL game day preview of the AFC divisional round matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens.
Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens – Odds & Trends
When: 8:15 PM ET, Saturday, January 11, 2020
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Point Spread: Baltimore Ravens -9.5
OVER / UNDER Game Total: 47.5
Road Record: 6-3
Home Record: 7-1
Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens Game Day Preview
The Tennessee Titans enter this AFC Divisional Playoff game with momentum from an upset victory over the New England Patriots in the wild-card round as the Baltimore Ravens rested on their round-one bye. Although the Ravens are favored, both teams will face high-powered offenses with tough quarterbacks.
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Although the Ravens are favored and appear unstoppable, they are facing arguably the hottest team right now after the Titans upset Tom Brady and the Patriots in New England. The Titans led by RB Derrick Henry, who won the rushing title during the regular season with 1,540 yards, 16 TDs and 5.1 yards per carry. With 34 carries against the Patriots, Henry had 182 yards, TD and 5.4 YPC. In fact, Tennessee is 7-0 when Henry rushes for over 100 yards.
Similar to the Ravens, the Titans have a weaker pass game but only because they rely on it less. Unlike the Ravens however, Tennessee emphasizes the long pass rather than short with Ryan Tannehill leading the league in QB rating and yards per attempt. WR A.J. Brown boasted 52 REC, 1,051 YDS, 8 TD and 20.2 YPC this season.
The struggles Tennessee will likely face against the Ravens however is with their pass defense. The Titans allowed the 7th most yards to tight ends in the league this season. Although they performed better than normal against the Patriots, Lamar Jackson favors his tight ends when he does decide to throw the ball.
Baltimore is favored in this game for many reasons but one in particular. The perennial MVP candidate Lamar Jackson seems unstoppable with his abilities to throw and carry the ball. Jackson has led the league with 36 touchdown passes as well as RPO plays with 172. All together, the Ravens lead the league with 206 rushing yards and 5.5 yards per carry.
Although Baltimore has a lower rated passing offense, this is due to the fact that they don’t rely on throwing as much but when they do, it is mostly on the short pass game. Ravens TE Mark Andrews has had 64 REC, 852 YDS and 10 TDs this season. Baltimore is so reliant on the short pass, their top three tight ends had more targets, REC, YDS and TDs than their top three wide receivers.
The Ravens pass defense has been extremely resilient this season as well by ranking 2nd in the league. They were 6th for yards per game and 2nd in CMP%. What is really going to hurt the Titans is that Baltimore’s defense is ranked 1st for blitz and 10th for fewest plays of 20+ yards. This will keep pressure on Tannehill and hurt his chances for big pass plays, his strength for throwing. The Ravens also have a great 3rd down and Red Zone defense, which is a weakness for Tennessee that Baltimore will try to capitalize on.
Titans & Ravens Facts
- Ravens rush defense were 5th this season with 93.4 YPG.
2. Titans defense held Patriots to 209 yards and an interception.
3. Tannehill has a 116.4 QB rating against the blitz.
4. Titans rush defense was 7th this season with 4 YPC.
Tennessee Titans Vs Baltimore Ravens Picks
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Game Pick – Baltimore Ravens 30 Tennessee Titans 17
10 PT Pick = Baltimore Ravens Will WIN By Over 9.5 PTS
9 PT Pick = Total PTS OVER 47.5 PTS
8 PT Pick = Baltimore Ravens Defense OVER 2.5 Sacks