A UFC 246 fight day preview between Conor McGregor and Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone.
UFC 246 – Odds & Trends
When: 10:00 PM ET, Saturday, January 18, 2020
Early Prelims: 6:30 PM – UFC Fight Pass
Preliminary Card: 8:00 PM ESPN
Main Event: 10:00 PM ET PPV
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
UFC Record: 9-3
Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone
UFC Record: 23-10
|Conor McGregor -330 vs. Donald Cerrone +250|
|Diego Ferreira -270 vs. Anthony Pettis +205|
|Claudia Gadelha -110 vs. Alexa Grasso -110|
|Maurice Greene -142 vs. Aleksei Oleinik +116|
|Holly Holm -142 vs. Raquel Pennington +116|
Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone Fight Preview
This weekend is the return of one of the biggest names in UFC history. “The Notorious” Conor McGregor. He’s facing a man that he was rumored to face a year ago, Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. This will be McGregors first fight in over a year, coming off of the loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov. This is Cowboys first fight since September of last year when he suffered a 1st round knockout. How will both fair this weekend? Let’s dive in with some stats and info.
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When this fight was announced a few months back, right off the bat, McGregor opened up as a -160 favorite. Since then it has grown to him being a -330 favorite. One reason why I can see why it jumped so much is purely on McGregors knockout power. His left hand is lethal (just ask Jose Aldo). On top of that Donald Cerrone is coming off of two losses, which he was just picked apart standing up. You never can take away Conor’s top notch boxing skills but his ground game is by far his weakest part of his game. In his losses to Nurmagomedov and Nate Diaz, once both guys got him to the ground it was over. Both times Conor tapped to rear naked chokes. Even when he fought Chad Mendes, Mendes had some success on the ground until Conor got back on his feet.
I have a couple concerns for Conor in this fight. Unlike in the beginning of his career, he really hasn’t been as active. This will be his 4th fight in 4 years. In his last 3 fights he’s posted a 1-3 record. I’m not including the boxing match in this stat because its a totally different sport and beast. When he was dominating opponents, he was fighting 2 or 3 times a year. So being off a year, how much ring rust is there? This is not a sport you can take time off and just jump back into it and be dominant. Plus with all the drama outside of the octagon, how much has taken a toll on him mentally? My other concern like i stated above his, has he improved his ground game? Cowboy might not be a Diaz but he still can be dangerous on the ground.
How Conor Wins
His best bet to win this fight is sticking to his strength. Stand up. If he can get the jab going to set up the left hook then this fight might not last long. I also think he needs to avoid the ground at all costs. If Cowboy takes him down, which he stated in an interview he rather bang with Conor, he needs to scramble as quick as possible to get back to the feet.
Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone
Coming into this fight Cowboy is a -260 underdog. Now Cowboy is no slouch to go up against. Yes he’s on a 2 fight losing streak, but much like Conor he has the knockout factor as well. But we seen his last two fights that his weakness IS his standup and maybe stubbornness to go away from it. He’s very good on the ground. He has 17 submissions in his career. He has noteable submissions over Mike Perry and Alex Oliveira.
My two concerns I have for Cowboy is his stubbornness to adjust when a game plan isn’t working, and all the wear and tear he has taken over his career. In the Tony Ferguson fight, he just got picked apart. Left right up and down. But instead of trying to take Tony down, he just kept coming forward. Eventually the doctor stopped the fight due to his eye being swollen shut. As for my second concern, this will be his 50th pro career fight. At some point your body just cant take the hits like it use to. I mean yes Justin Gaethje has tremendous power punches, but he just flattened him out with his punch. Will it happen again this weekend?
How Cowboy Wins
Very simple. Take Conor down and don’t let him up. Problem is though how can he take him down without getting caught from Conor’s left. I think Cowboy needs to use his kicks and jabs to get Conor close to the cage and shoot in, eliminating that power in the hook. Also longer Cowboy keeps Conor down, the more he wears Conor out. We’ve all seen if you get a Conor fight to the 4th and 5th rounds he loses a lot of his stamina.
McGregor & Cerrone Facts
- Donald Cerrone holds the most wins in UFC with 22.
2. Conor Mcgregor was the first champ to hold 2 belts at the same time.
3. Donald Cerrone holds the most finishes in UFC with 16.
4. Conor Mcgregor holds a 13 second knockout win.
McGregor vs. Cerrone Picks
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Fight Pick – Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone
10 PT Pick = Donald Cerrone WINS In Round 5 (KO, TKO, DQ, Submission Only)
9 PT Pick = Diego Ferreira Wins By KO, TKO, Submission Or DQ
8 PT Pick = Holly Holm Wins By KO, TKO, Submission Or DQ