An NFL game day preview of the AFC divisional round matchup between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Odds & Trends
When: 3:05 PM ET, Sunday, January 12, 2020
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Point Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -9.5
OVER / UNDER Game Total: 51
Road Record: 5-3
Kansas City Chiefs
Home Record: 5-3
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Day Preview
The Houston Texans enter this AFC Divisional Playoff game with momentum from an overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills in the wild-card round as the Kansas City Chiefs rested on their round-one bye. Although the Chiefs are favored, the Texans were responsible for one of their few losses in the regular season which should make this an exciting rematch.
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The Texans are riding a wave of momentum from their exciting comeback over-time victory over the Buffalo Bills last week. Unsurprisingly, Deshaun Watson was an integral part of the victory with 247 passing yards, a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown as part of 19 unanswered points. DeAndre Hopkins has been one of Watson’s main weapons all season with 104 receptions, 1,165 yards and 7 TDs.
The reason Houston was able to overcome the dominate Chiefs in week 6 this season however was due to their powerful running game. In that victory, Watson accumulated 192 rushing yards. The Texans’ running game this season has been led by RB Carlos Hyde with 1,070 yards and 6 TDs in 2019. Although Kansas City’s pass defense is one of the best in the league, they struggle against passes to running backs. This bodes well for the Texans as RD Duke Johnson is Watson’s third most targeted receiver.
Frustrated from failing to make a Super Bowl appearance last season after a stellar run, Kansas City is surely playing with a chip on their shoulder to prove they belong. After missing a few games this season due to a dislocated knee cap, Patric Mahomes still managed to finish the season with 4,031 passing yards and 26 touchdown passes. All together the Chiefs pass offense ranked 5th in yards as well as 5th in TDs.
With one of the worst pass defenses in the league, the Texans will have their work cut out for them against Kansas City wide receivers Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. This season, Kelce accounted for 97 receptions, 1,229 yards and 5 TDs and Hill claimed 58 receptions, 860 yards and 7 TDs. The Chiefs also had the number one offense for 3rd down conversions in the league with 47.6%, something the Texans defense ranked one of the worst at stopping.
Where Kansas City may struggle is with their rush defense, ranking 28th this season in yards per carry allowed and 26th for yards per game allowed. Although Tyrann Mathieu, Chris Jones and Frank Clark are strong assets on their defense, losing Juan Thornhill for the remainder of the playoffs is going to be a huge loss. With J.J. Watt making a strong return last week against the Bills, the Chiefs will need to keep pressure off Mahomes so he can take advantage of the weak Houston pass defense.
Texans & Chiefs Facts
- 178.7 YPG allowed in Chiefs 4 losses.
2. Texans rank 9th with 125.6 YPC.
3. Chiefs rank 3rd for fewest sacks allowed in 2019.
4. Texans rank 31st for QB pressure.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Picks
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Game Pick – Kansas City Chiefs 34 Houston Texas 27
10 PT Pick = Kansas City Chiefs OVER 30.5 PTS
9 PT Pick = Kansas City Chiefs Will NOT WIN By OVER 9.5 PTS
8 PT Pick = Total PTS OVER 51.5